MA20: When the Bitcoin bulls are again determining the price

Not a day goes by without an expert making forecasts about the Bitcoin price. But is there a possibility of predicting a bull market? A moving average can give hints.

„Permabull xyz sees Bitcoin at the end of 2018 with so many US dollars“. „Investor says: Bull market comes in October“. „When the employees of Kreissparkasse Bottrop are paid their bonuses, a huge institutional investment can be expected“. The list of opinions about the Bitcoin course can only be completed with difficulty. Hardly a day goes by without an investor, financial expert, Permabull or Permabear commenting on the subject.

Justified assessments are something different. Even if you don’t know what the future holds, there are more often signs. History does not repeat itself, but sometimes rhymes, as the old saying goes. Such „rhyming“ is what we would like to look at in Bitcoin’s price history. It is the behaviour of the Bitcoin price around the MA20 in the weekly chart.

What is this Bitcoin formula?

Before we look at the MA20 in the weekly chart, we briefly clarify both terms: The weekly chart is the illustration of a price trend in which the closing prices of each week are always shown. One year then has 52 such data points – one for each week. The weekly chart for the Bitcoin formula price since the end of 2017 looks as follows:

The MA20 is a so called moving average. Price developments, especially for crypto currencies, can sometimes be quite noisy. This price development can be smoothed out by averaging the last twenty values for each time value.

For a trader, however, such mean values are interesting because of something else: Such moving mean values can represent an important support or an important resistance, i.e. describe price levels that are difficult to undercut or exceed. A picture says more than a thousand words, corresponding here to the MA20 in the weekly chart of the Bitcoin price:

The MA20 as assessment of the Bitcoin trader

Here we see the development of the Bitcoin trader share price from 2012 to 2018. The MA20 is pale blue. Arrows mark special moments when the price rose above the MA20 (green), fell below it (red) or only touched the moving average (blue). As you can see from the chart, the MA20 is a good support if the price is above it, while it is a stable resistance if the Bitcoin trader prices are bad.

One sees this particularly well in the price development since end of 2015, speak since the last green arrow. After the Bitcoin price rose above the MA20 at the beginning of October 2015, it could remain above this level until January 29, 2018 (marked with a red arrow). Five times the Bitcoin price tried to fall below the MA20, but could rise again and again. The opposite behavior can be seen since January 2018, when the Bitcoin price fell below the MA20. All three breakout attempts via the MA20 have so far been unsuccessful.

By no means all these opinions are worth nothing. In February Tom Lee of Fundstrat explained his bullish position in an interesting lecture. There are price forecasts which are based on a solid fundamental analysis. Too often, however, only the arrival of the Messiah institutional investor is predicted or holidays are seen as the reason for an upcoming bull or bear season. Here one can state quite clearly that these opinions are nothing other than opinions.

With Mark Hanna from Wolf of Wall Street one has to state again and again: „Nobody… and I don’t care if you’re Warren Buffet or if you’re Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways or in fucking circles.“ Accordingly, statements brand „expert xyz sees the Bitcoin price at the end of 2018 at 50,000 U.S. dollars“ must also be valued. It’s all a fugazi.

A rough rule can be derived from this. If the Bitcoin price is above the MA20, it looks like a bull market, including a bear market. Of course you can argue that this is not a law carved in stone. The „failed attempts“ are marked in grey when the Bitcoin price crossed the moving average without the market switching from bulls to bears or vice versa. However, it should be stressed that so far there have only been four such failed attempts. That is 20 percent, which is a very good error rate for such signals.

So when do the cops determine the Bitcoin price again? Instead of saying that „the bull market will come at the end of 2018“, or „when institutional investors come“, you can hi

Forum Hack at Ethereum – Comeback of a Hacker

It almost seems like you’re not safe from hacks anymore, does it? The day before yesterday, Ethereum announced that hacks had been detected on the Ethereum forum. On December 16th, unauthorized access to the was recorded. The hacker is known from another hack.

Indian Bitcoin exchanges, scammers, phishing attacks. Crime does not stop at technology either. What do we know about the Ethereum forum hack?

Hudson Jameson of Ethereum provided some information about a Bitcoin profit review

What we know: The hacked file is a database backup from April of this year and contains information on about 16,500 forum users. The leased information includes News, both public and private, IP addresses, Usernames and email addresses, profile information, hashed passwords.

~13,000 bcrypt Hashes salted* (* see below)
~1,500 WordPress hashes salted*
~2,000 accounts without password (federated identity: compound identity from already known information)
(!) The attacker expressed himself as the same Bitcoin profit review person who hacked Bo Shen in early December and stole over 280,000 € from the VC
The attacker used social engineering (as he did last time) to get access to a smartphone. From there he had access to other accounts, one of which had access to the old database.
I just put a bold prognosis in the room:

Since the hacker now has access to sensitive data a second time with the same(!) strategy, he won’t stop. And that there are always known goals from the crypto world, it should give us to think.

What countermeasures does Ethereum take against the Bitcoin profit scam?

Affected users of the forum should already have received an e-mail from onlinebetrug with further information. The unauthorized access points should have been closed.

The security guidelines will be increased. Phone numbers are excluded from the Bitcoin profit scam system and sensitive data is encrypted from now on.

If you think you are affected, you can get security on the HaveIBeenpWned website. The possible leaked e-mail addresses can be compared there with the forum’s own e-mail address. In addition, all forum passwords have been reset.

If someone is affected by the attack, James advises the following:

Make sure that you have not used your password anywhere else. If you have used your password from elsewhere, change it immediately.

Questions can also be sent to .

Social Engineering
Behind this high-sounding term stands a practice that every Internet user may have experienced before.

An e-mail that looks exactly like PayPal and asks for sensitive data such as address and password? And then has a cryptic sender?

This form is called phishing and is only one of many social engineering methods to gain the user’s trust and then obtain information.

Administrators will never(!) ask you for passwords. Don’t be unsettled and get all the more sensitive when someone threatens to talk to your supervisor if you don’t cooperate (in fact, this is a famous scam).

Take it easy and be attentive when it comes to sensitive information. Passwords are easily forgotten, that’s right, but it’s still important to use different passwords. If an account is hacked, the attacker can use the found password to crack other services that you use.

\* salted: A hash to which additional random information has been added to increase entropy.

ETH course analysis KW20 – And on we go in the Upward Channel!

After a slight fall to BTC 0.047 (EUR 83.80), the price rose to BTC 0.064 (EUR 114.12), but is currently consolidating and stands at BTC 0.061 (EUR 108.77).


After a hesitant start, the price first fell under EMA24 and EMA48 to 0.047 BTC (83.80 EUR).
However, the Ether price recovered and rose to a new all-time high of 0.064 BTC (114.12 EUR).
In the course of a consolidation, the share price is now at 0.061 BTC (108.77 EUR).
Wow! Not only Bitcoin! Not only Bitcoin, but also Ethereum is experiencing new highs – the price has risen above the 100 EUR mark for the first time.

After the price tested the EMA48 on May 18th and 19th there was no hold on the price and it rose to a new all-time high of 0.064 BTC (114.12 EUR) within a very short time. Certainly the latest ICOs have had their influence here. However, Ethereum is currently taking a slight breather – and is testing the support described by EMA24. It remains to be seen how the price of this support will behave.

The MACD (second panel from above) is still above zero. But beware: since today the MACD line (blue) is below the signal (orange) and is moving towards zero. In this respect, the MACD threatens to send a bearish signal.

At 48, the RSI (third panel from above) confirms this bearish picture

The 60min chart therefore looks bearish from the price development. It will have to be shown how the price behaves to the support described by EMA24, should it hold, a stable rise could occur. Whether there is another reason for this hope should be discussed when looking at the medium- and long-term price developments.

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